In the world of marathon distance open water swimming, athletes often confront various external and internal demons. The darkness of early morning swims, the relentless physical pain, the lurking sea life, and the inner voices of doubt all play their part in the struggle. However, my fiercest adversary in this grueling sport is something far more uncontrollable: THE WEATHER.

The Unpredictability of the Weather

While mental and physical preparation are within our control, the weather remains a wildcard. My personal encounters with weather-induced setbacks are a testament to its unpredictable and often cruel nature.

In 2009, I was part of a team scheduled to swim an English Channel Relay. Despite our meticulous training and readiness, we were left stranded on the beach in Dover as two hurricanes obliterated our crossing window. Our months of preparation were rendered futile by the whims of Mother Nature.

Another poignant example comes from a fellow swimmer who faced consecutive cancellations at major open water events due to adverse weather conditions. Over six weeks, he was thwarted at Big Shoulders in Chicago, La Jolla Roughwater in San Diego, and Waikiki Roughwater in Hawaii. His financial investment of approximately $15,000, including entry fees, airfare, and hotel, was wasted because of the weather.

Not a swimming season goes by where participants are pulled from their swims or events are cancelled due to bad weather. Even the most seasoned and resilient swimmers often find themselves at the mercy of the elements.

The Worst Day of My Life: Fury at Apache Lake

One of the most harrowing experiences of my life occurred during the Apache Lake segment of the SCAR marathon swim, a notorious and grueling open water event. I was kayak supporting a swimmer when we were hit by 30mph headwinds. The relentless wind and towering 6-foot swells made every paddle stroke a battle. Despite my exhaustion, I tried to maintain my position, but the elements had other plans.

Suddenly, a massive wave hit, flipping my kayak. I watched in horror as the kayak tumbled away through the surf, never to be seen again. In that moment, I lost not only my kayak but also my swimmer. The towering swells obscured any chance of locating each other. Drifting in 60-degree water, I clung to a few rescued provisions and my paddle, hoping for a miracle.

For 30 agonizing minutes, I floated alone in the vast, tumultuous lake, fearing the worst. Finally, one of the few safety vessels patrolling the area spotted me. They pulled me aboard, and together, we spent the next two hours rescuing other swimmers and kayakers who had been similarly separated and stranded. The weather had turned the event into a perilous ordeal, marking it as the most dangerous situation I have ever faced.

The Risk Aversion Scale: Safety Above All

“He Died Doing Something He Loved” vs. “Live to Swim Another Day”

This experience underscored the importance of safety in open water events. I’ve developed a "Risk Aversion Scale" to guide decision-making for swimmers, support crews, and event management. At one end of the scale is the sentiment, “He died doing something he loved,” which romanticizes the risk and often overlooks the preventable nature of many accidents. At the other end is the pragmatic motto, “Live to swim another day,” emphasizing the value of life and the importance of safety.

Every decision must take safety seriously. It’s essential to assess conditions realistically, prepare for the worst, and prioritize the well-being of everyone involved. The goal is not just to complete the swim but to ensure that everyone returns safely. Balancing ambition with caution is crucial, and this scale serves as a constant reminder that no achievement is worth compromising safety.

Including this scale in our event planning and personal preparation can help mitigate risks and make our swims safer, allowing us to continue enjoying the sport we love for many more days to come.

 The Weight of Weather on Event Planning

As an event director, the days leading up to an event are fraught with anxiety about weather conditions. The responsibility of not letting people down if an event has to be canceled due to bad weather is a heavy burden. Ensuring the safety and satisfaction of participants while battling unpredictable weather patterns is a continuous challenge.

My experience as a Customer Satisfaction Specialist for Vail Resorts in Colorado in the early 2000s further solidified my understanding of how deeply weather impacts overall satisfaction. Good weather significantly boosted all aspects of the surveyed skiing experience, from parking to the lifts and even the food. Conversely, long periods without snow saw customer satisfaction plummet. This is why ski resorts invest heavily in snowmaking and why major sports often have indoor stadiums to mitigate weather disruptions.

The Unfairness of the "One and Done" Concept

The concept of events hinging on a single day’s weather is fundamentally unfair. No matter how prepared a swimmer is, if the weather does not cooperate, even the greatest swimmers won't get off the beach. Conversely, favorable weather can enable even average swimmers to achieve extraordinary feats. A well-known English Channel boat captain aptly put it: “If the wind is favorable, I can guide a log across the English Channel.”

Personal Battles with the Weather

In my own life, my success and enjoyment are often dictated by the weather. A sunny, clear day lifts my spirits and sets a positive tone for everything that follows. Conversely, rainy, cold, and windy days cast a shadow over my mood and productivity.

Despite rigorous training and mental preparation, the omnipresent threat of unfavorable weather is my demon. The unpredictability of Mother Nature often stands between me and my swimming goals, reminding me of the ever-present challenge that every open water swimmer must face. Yet, it is this very battle with the elements that shapes the spirit of marathon swimming, teaching resilience and the art of finding joy in the journey, regardless of the outcome.